Climate risks loom like a dark cloud over the housing market. Due to extreme weather, the likelihood of flooding is increasing in the Netherlands. Yet many homes are not flood-resistant, and most homeowners are insufficiently informed and prepared for these risks. A team of scientists from Delft and Rotterdam wants to change that with a water label. “We don't want to scare people, but to empower them to protect themselves and their homes.”
Few countries are as well protected against flood risks as the Netherlands, but climate change is ushering in a new reality. Heavy rainfall will more frequently cause flooded basements, leaky roofs, and waterlogged streets. What does this new climate reality mean for homeowners and homebuyers?
According to scientists at Erasmus University Rotterdam and Delft University of Technology, we must prepare for climate damage. “Homeowners and buyers need to know what risks they are exposed to and what they can do to protect themselves and their homes,” says Professor of Economics Tatiana Filatova (TU Delft). This is especially important for vulnerable groups, says Filatova, as not everyone has the means to sell and move when the water comes.
Filatova is working on a climate risk label for homes alongside behavioral scientist Antonia Krefeld-Schwalb (EUR) and a large team of other Delft and Rotterdam researchers and societal partners. Their mission: to develop a tool that not only maps flood risks for each home but also helps homeowners take action before water damage occurs. We spoke to Tatiana Filatova and Antonia Krefeld-Schwalb about climate risks and what a water label could mean for the broad prosperity of flood-prone areas.
Tatiana Filatova: “A significant part of the Netherlands is vulnerable to flooding. The chance of a major flood is low in many areas, but not everywhere. Some regions are not protected by dikes, and others have weaker protection. Many homes already experience flooded basements after heavy rainfall. These homeowners face unexpected costs and must ask themselves: how do we deal with this? The climate is changing so drastically that the superior technical solutions we've relied on for centuries no longer provide near-total safety, as people in the Netherlands have long been accustomed to.”
Antonia Krefeld-Schwalb: “What’s interesting about our perception of flood risk is how much it’s shaped by history and geography. In the Netherlands, we often think of the sea when we talk about flooding. But rising sea levels are not the only threat. In fact, the greatest risk now comes from heavy rainfall.”
Tatiana Filatova: “Understanding these perceptions is essential. People interpret risks very differently, and societal beliefs play a major role. In the Netherlands, the prevailing view is that flood risk is no longer a problem. But that’s not what science tells us. Just last year, many people dealt with flooded basements due to heavy rain. These weren’t catastrophic floods, but the damage was still felt. We will have to become more proactive. We need to think about damage mitigation in the event of a major flood caused by the changing climate.”
Antonia Krefeld-Schwalb: “Exactly, and that requires more than just informing people about the flood risks they face. We have to ensure that they can actually do something with that information. In psychology, there’s a phenomenon called ‘learned helplessness,’ where people feel powerless because they don’t understand how to address a negative situation. So: we must tell people what the risks are, but above all, we must empower them to act on those risks.”
As Assistant Professor of Marketing at Rotterdam School of Management, Antonia Krefeld-Schwalb bridges cognitive science and marketing to study consumer and managerial decision-making. She focuses on sustainable behavior, persuasive messaging, and the role of individual differences in effective marketing. Her work is funded by the Dutch Research Council (NWO) and contributes to climate adaptation through projects like the Erasmus Sustainability Program and research on climate risk labels.
Tatiana Filatova is Professor of Computational Economics at TU Delft, where she leads the 4TU.Resilience Research Program and the Climate Change Governance Theme of the Climate Action Programme. Her research explores how individual behavioral changes can trigger large-scale transitions in climate-resilient development. Using spatial agent-based models and household data, she investigates social tipping points and the co-evolution of institutions. Her work is supported by the ERC and NWO, including a VIDI grant on sea level adaptation.
Tatiana Filatova: “Exactly. Climate risks are increasing, and our history is no longer a reliable predictor of future flood risks. A water label can guide people through the unknown terrain we now face. Here’s an example: by 2030, one million new homes are planned, and 80 percent of them are being built in climate-sensitive areas. What does that mean for the people who will live there? As a buyer, you want to know what you’re getting into. A water label can help with that. It’s meant to provide both owners and prospective buyers with insight into the risks and potential mitigation measures.”
Antonia Krefeld-Schwalb: “The water label we’re developing is more than just an informational tool—it’s a behavioral intervention that will help people make better choices.”
Tatiana Filatova: “There are various practical measures homeowners can take. For instance, you can install a backflow preventer on drains in the house, so water doesn’t flow back in from the sewer if your street floods. You can also make your basement flood-resistant using special materials. Other practical options include waterproof shutters for windows and doors to keep water out. Indoors, you can opt for water-resistant materials like tiles instead of expensive hardwood flooring.”
Antonia Krefeld-Schwalb: “Beyond individual precautions, homeowners can contribute to neighborhood-level flood protection. For example, by not paving over their gardens or greening the street with neighbors, they can help the soil absorb more water, reducing risk for everyone.”
Tatiana Filatova: “There are also more drastic measures, like elevating homes, but that’s not very practical given how houses in the Netherlands are built. However, improving drainage systems or designing new homes to better cope with heavy rain are viable options.
It’s a matter of thinking ahead: where is your electricity located? If water enters your home, it’s safer if the fuse box isn’t on the ground floor. Some of these measures are costly, but they can also prevent a lot of financial damage if flooding occurs. Ultimately, it’s about being prepared for a possible flood and its consequences—especially when damages aren’t covered by insurance or government compensation.”
Tatiana Filatova: “If a climate label is rolled out too quickly or poorly explained, it could cause panic and confusion. We want to avoid that. That’s why it’s important we design the water label in collaboration with relevant societal partners and stakeholders. This research project is highly applied and policy-oriented. We must go beyond disseminating scientific knowledge—we must understand the context in which various actors, like banks, real estate managers, and government agencies, operate.
To me, this project is about finding effective ways to communicate risks without causing alarm. We don’t want to scare people—we want to empower them to protect themselves and their homes.”
Antonia Krefeld-Schwalb: “That’s a key risk we’re mindful of. It’s especially important that vulnerable groups have access to the right information. That’s why we aim to make information on climate risks as accessible and understandable as possible for everyone. One way to do that is to focus not on flood probabilities but on expected financial damage. Probability calculations are difficult for many people to grasp, especially when it comes to very small chances. Instead, we want to give people a tangible sense of the damage they might face—amounts they can compare to their salary, annual income, or savings.”
Tatiana Filatova: “We want the water label to be interactive too—so people can virtually experiment with different climate adaptation measures, see what they cost, and how they help reduce damage. Almost like a game, where people can try out solutions and see what happens.”
We know that people often misjudge risks, regardless of income. This lack of awareness can lead them to overbid on homes that are actually much riskier than they realize, ending up with mortgages they can’t afford. Our simulations show that wealthier people often move out of high-risk areas after a flood, while lower-income individuals are stuck—they’ve taken on a high mortgage and can’t sell at the same price. This exacerbates inequalities, as the most vulnerable are hit hardest.
A water label can help by lowering the threshold to access clear information about a home’s value. But structural inequalities also require government-level interventions—especially for people trapped in high-risk areas with no way to move.”
Antonia Krefeld-Schwalb: “Exactly. The water label can help individuals, but we also need broader societal solutions for issues like climate gentrification—where wealthier, more educated people can adapt or opt out of climate risks, while poorer individuals are left behind.”
Antonia Krefeld-Schwalb: “It all started last year at ‘Working Towards NLAAA,’ an expert meeting organized by the Resilient Delta initiative. That’s where we met the key societal partners now involved in the project. It’s fantastic to work on this together. Everyone in the team has a different background, but we share the same goal. We want to help vulnerable groups through impactful research. Ultimately, we aim to generate insights that contribute to global climate adaptation policy.”
Tatiana Filatova: “I’m glad we found each other. Interdisciplinary collaboration isn’t easy—it requires stepping out of your comfort zone and acknowledging your knowledge gaps. But it’s also incredibly enriching. The Resilient Delta initiative made our collaboration possible—not just by funding the project but by bringing us together and connecting us to societal stakeholders. That’s what makes this project so special.”
